He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”. Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal . Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. free books online, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. download free ebook, “Engaging . (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility ebook epub/pdf/mobi/azw3. This is an interesting read which is very abstract in nature. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, “all swans are white” had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. . Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it’s practically useless. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don’t–and, most importantly, can’t–know. The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. Or, as he puts it, “History does not crawl, it jumps.” Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls “Mediocristan,” while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of “Extremistan.”, In full disclosure, I’m a long admirer of Taleb’s work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. <>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 595.2 841.92] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. 2 0 obj Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. . Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. <> Read More: Follow Twitter | Review sách hay | Top 10 Su That | Học Forex, The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Old School (Book 10), The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Uncle Vanya: Scenes from Country Life in Four Acts, The Wars of the Jews Or The History of the Destruction of Jerusalem. . September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. AZW3, mobi, endobj endobj The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. x��]s�6�=3��7� ��G'�ۉ��\�\�>d� [���%��\_��a��zs�D$��~����~s���g�ޝ������*�zr���?l�8����>��������n���ޟgg�oߜ\�LJQ�����72+��d֖�(�LBv����"��?>�}�u��d��z�惞���7J���*%�FO��J%�:{Z�}��?�ݑ� ��]�����_g2X�?�Ȳu�af�����,;�|�����Yq����6��w�g9c\��J���Z��e�*����ݭ�f���s5���l ?��z�-�粝}��٫~��� ���H�U!�e�e��_g?f�Y�(�Y8c���V�2_����l������Q�Z" { ��=�7@� �8�n��������>����y�沘m53��y�ӯ�N.��j&`^����E�sT�c;Q�#��RȈ��x�r���q� ��L����R�J4�Mrl�E��^�ƪZ��w��M)���V�>�xPwZo�U^:%������R��I�{`j2mjՄ���vR�_�ͨ�ΫYʉ�v�^�{;{Z���ՏZA�w�t��G������&�>>m4�5���H1���Gj��rҿ�R����� nk�4��/`g�:���0�r��U�_���|y�FY����hh��4���oٓT[��`r�c�DOK����`wz�d�~ҳ���m�ϷS�Ej*��x���Ub���^ѵ��B���a��7���_�7��w`. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. –Chris Anderson, How to download eBooks: Click Download, wait 5 seconds and Click Skip This Ad to download ebook, Keywords: The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the “millionaire next door,” when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). We only index and link to content provided by other sites. This site does not store any files on its server. “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times . 4 0 obj stream The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. PDF | On Feb 1, 2008, Gene Callahan published Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable | Find, read and … Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb 1 0 obj In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. ebook, epub, ... Nassim Nicholas Taleb Two contrasting summaries: Summary 1. %PDF-1.5 endobj A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. free ebook, “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . “Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall–they are the real distorting prisms of human nature.” Chief among them: “Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature.” Now consider the typical stock market report: “Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production.” Sigh. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. %���� Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb. <>>> The book has made me think in a very abstract way in looking at past events that happened and trying to work out if we could Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. 3 0 obj easy to dip into.”—Financial Times Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We’re still doing it. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility. Praise for The Black Swan, “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London), “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail . <> I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. PDF, Previous post: The Crossing (Harry Bosch), © 2015 Free Kindle Books – All Rights Reserved But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. . The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
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