fnorman, you don't know what "majority views" are; you're making assumptions. I don't know any more than anyone else, but my hunch is 1-2 months. If any of us who work for large corporates really honestly look at it, how much of the corporate travel that we see is really 'essential'. If the same proportion of the population had immunity against Covid-19 due to existing anti-bodies or vaccination it won't be a drama. parties. The COVID pandemic is continuing unabated, with Western countries unable control the virus. It drains resources from more important things. Freqflyer when your number is up is fine but if you take two people with you then it becomes a very big issue when you multiply this by several hundred thousand. “With the sector’s contribution to GDP plunging by almost half, it’s more important than ever that Travel & Tourism is given the support needed so it can help power the economic recovery, which will be instrumental in enabling the world to revive from the effects of the pandemic.”. Already have an ET account? As a young teen, in my final year of secondary schooling, in Australia, and someone who had hoped to enter into the Travel and Tourism industry (of course, pre coronavirus), I am now heavily relying upon this industry to restart to at least 50-60% operation by the middle of 2021, whether that may be domestic or limited international travel. The reason many people (you say most but since you've never done a poll you have no way of knowing what the majority consensus actually is) want the restrictions to continue indefinitely is because the media has done their job of manufacturing the public's consent. After all, we still don't have a vaccine for the HIV virus. 2022 mostly back to a new ‘normal'. Already in some Asian countries, national governments are finding it difficult to keep the enforcement up. David Flynn is the Editor-in-Chief of Executive Traveller and a bit of a travel tragic with a weakness for good coffee, shopping and lychee martinis. To everything you say (which I agree with) I would add that cruise ships must also use hospital grade filters (N95) on their air conditioning much like aeroplanes do. Pardon the pun, but perhaps you guys should cool your jets. I agree. Convert your points to Virgin Australia Velocity, Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer, Cathay Pacific Asia Miles and more. Now that the spread of disease almost everywhere is community-based rather than from travel, travel restrictions between countries and states may slow the spread in some places but will not stop it. Offer ends 7th September 2021. Europe is already opening up (so far just to each other's countries, but still), by next month some European countries will open travel bubbles and the Aus-NZ bubble will likely take shape in a month or two, rather than September. This show hasn't run it's course though, we're just weeks in but let's see whether the same desire to enforce lock downs remains if this goes on for months or years. While the WTTC has praised governments around the world for their prompt response, they fear governments cannot continue to support these threatened jobs indefinitely. Not being able to travel has halted all these activities. Airlines will leave themselves open to litigation from staff if they are asked to work without adequate protection just like in any other job or customers if government directed rules on social distancing aren't enforced. “That keeps international travel – both inbound and outbound – pretty weak in 2022, and it may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024,” he said, according to 7 News. I have no plans to change my lifestyle. They did a mass vaccination drive in Samoa, vaccinating the entire population and tried enforcing mandates in parts of NY/NJ, but other than that there were no restrictions, no flight suspensions, no lock downs. The Freq Flyer even if the US does open no-one will want to go there or be allowed to come from there due to their totally unreliable and decentralised COVID testing and tracking regime. Airlines will go out of business permanently, and then the likes of online magazines like this one will largely become irrelevant, since business travel will cease to exist. This group will be led by business travellers as well as mid-to high-tier frequent flyers, with household income of US$125k and higher, and be venturing out on mainly long-range international flights. When a country is past the peak and has things under control it will want to maintain the restrictions in order to minimize re-imports from countries where the numbers are still rising, and to help deflect a potential second wave. We will have another month of lock down then we can go back to work at an office but travel out of Australia will be some ways off. NSW government throw $50 million at ‘out of control’ mouse plague The PM had previously raised hopes that international travel could resume in October 2021. Then the students can come back and business travel and more adventurous holidayers. If you can't be civil, then you should be asking yourself how much of your deep past and your psyche you're taking into these discussions. This is pure dribble. From 12-18 months they'll be joined by a rush of 'fast followers', as the industry sees a 'near-normal volume of business travellers' aligned with strong bookings for the premium cabins of business and first class. May be in a few more months time things will become much clearer. 1:31. I think that other coronaviruses and planet warming has some news for you and it is not good. This may be the beginning of the end for for class travel ,could airlines discontinue this service ,,. You may not be aware that for many years now, some African and South American countries require proof of yellow fever vaccination to enter (or only if you have arrived from a transmission zone). Hopefully there are more first class suites to self isolate on those smaller planes. Everything was fine and dandy until a few weeks ago, why should we accept such infringements on our civil liberties from one day to the next? And of course police love enforcing that is their day job. Not sure what is more important than fighting a pandemic. Just see how vigorous they are in enforcing lock downs. I'm think VIC, NSW and QLD will get back to normal first with flights followed by the other states. How do you know most people have been vaccinated against the measles? It's not 1% though and all depends on how deaths are tallied... also is it 1% of all elderly patients or all patients? I can't do business travel this year as I can't get insurance through work. It will depend on how many airlines will survive the looming COVID induced global recession. Freqflyer There will be a vaccine or anti-retrovirals, and like the flu it may have to be every year and I am sure by 2021 or 2022 at the latest it will keep CV-19 in check enough to keep us out of hospitals. Already lots of protests happening. I see the quarantine measures being relaxed and removed quite quickly after a return to normalcy. This includes the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu. In Australia WA and NT may keep travel bans for longer as the risk from the rest of Australia is still too great. What I think it means is, back to 2019 levels or profitability or both. Americans cherish their freedoms and if you only watch CNN and MSNBC, you're getting a biased picture. UN forecast international tourism bounce-back more likely in 2022. If a country is relatively free (Australia) and the only new cases being travellers in quarantine, then they would be dumb to open up, and let carriers run riot and we know what that means ( see New York) It really can't get any worse for Italy for Australia it can. Assuming Emirates returns to the skies, I will be out there doing that work. In 2020, the sector was responsible for contributing US$4.7 trillion (5.5% of the global economy), down from nearly US$9.2 trillion in 2019 (10.4%). Closely mirrors what's happening now. Some hysterical people who are scared of life itself may stay away from travel for some time, but for those of us who thrive on it, and who can't imagine life without it, will get on planes and cross borders almost as soon as we're allowed to. No one seems to be talking about the flu which will kill far more than corona. Children in Australia maybe, but only since the 90s...before then only half of all children were vaccinated. Maybe. Being on the plane could be quite pleasant - only time in the 'new world' where you can safely chat to a stranger without distancing! I know everybody, including myself, are wanting definite time lines so we can start making our travel plans, but I think the situation is still too fluid & variable to make any plans just yet. Corona viruses cause the common cold. way sooner than Xmas like in 2 months time. That of course remains the X-factor, and the San Francisco think-tank hasn't defined what this milestone may look like: is it the infection curve being well and truly flattened, or does it mean the arrival and widespread distribution of a vaccine? I think it unlikely there will be any major relaxation of travel restrictions until a system is in place that requires all travellers to have a relevant immunization card or health certificate as well as their passport before being allowed to travel, as once was the case for certain diseases and countries. At 16-24 months after COVID-19 is considered under control (the end of 2022, if COVID-19 is under control by the end of this year), it's time for leisure travellers to return en masse as the industry reaches "80-90% of pre-virus leisure volume", while at 24+ months (2023) Atmosphere expects travel to be "at or above pre-virus traffic". Depends on the country though, in Australia probably yes, but in many developing countries they're going to run out of steam eventually. The report shows that the sector’s contribution to GDP dropped by 49.1%, in comparison to the overall global economy, which dropped by just 3.7%. Those of us reading this kind of publication are obviously quite well off financially and will probably weather the current storm OK. By arguing this way, you're being a tiny representation of the reason for so much injustice in this world. Nurses on high alert after … It's quite possible the coronavirus scare will soften demand for much travel for years to come, depending on how frightened potential travelers are by the prospect of getting stuck abroad, the possibility of such closures happening again and of course, any changes in entry requirements as a result of this. I think we will be lucky to see traffic approach 2019 levels as soon as 2023 if ever. Their PM would impose some rediculous, PC test upon landing. Asian countries are talking of a bubble of their own - Japan is targeting Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand. Subscribe to our free newsletter and get the latest news, reviews, tips and more sent straight to your inbox, Post-coronavirus, 'normal' travel may not resume until 2023, Plaza Premium delays reopening of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane lounges, Apple’s roadmap for next-gen MacBook Pro, MacBook Air revamps, British Airways first class lounge unveils space-age ‘sleep pods’, 5 reasons you shouldn't bin your boarding passes, What to do when an airline cancels your flight, New ways for airlines to win your business. Decisions about when international travel resumes will be made by the Australian Government. And I can tell you a lot of people are eager to head to the USA and they aren't living in fear. Now, the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu require a vaccination certificate for measles to enter the country. Be careful what you wish for...you're pinning your hope on a vaccine that will undoubtedly have no ability to control this virus. There's bound to be some quarantining required. Maybe Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, and HK are possible but beyond that hard to see. Gloria Guevara, WTTC President & CEO, has said: “We must praise the prompt action of governments around the world for saving so many jobs and livelihoods at risk, thanks to various retention schemes, without which today’s figures would be far worse. On May 9, ahead of the delivery of the 2021-22 federal budget, treasurer Josh Frydenburg stated in an interview with SBS News that he expects that migration and travel wil resume again in 2022. On your other point police love enforcement and the Asian countries that are ‘having trouble keeping it up' are having big spikes, so not sure where optimism is coming from. Mark my words - in a few weeks, major economies will have re-opened. There are people who used to be laughed at and ridiculed called "conspiracy theorists" who made the claim that vaccinations will be required to be a part of society in the future, whether for travel, to enter foreign countries, get visas and extensions and even for driver licenses. I am aware that many issues arise when considering the possible re-opening of popular destinations, but despite something like Covid-19, being an uncharted territory, we will eventually need to initiate a return to normal travel rates. Africa, South America, India & maybe some other 3rd world countries maybe bit later. Quite a big deal. The first 6-9 months of post-coronavirus travel (mid-late 2021, on our ambit timeline) will see what Atmosphere terms 'tiptoe travellers' venturing out. Thank goodness for OFX and Rocket Remit who allow me to remotely support these people remotely. New cards only. Or, less likely, we'll go back to normal without any changes to the previous status quo. Will I be able to board a plane this year or use my passport? The sector’s contribution to global GDP could rise sharply this year, up 48.5% year-on-year. It's anyone's guess as to the timeline this will happen, but I don't believe this think tank. I am confused as to why we couldn't get up to 30-40% of normal capacity with proper (PCR, not anitbody) testing. I agree based on current assessments October sounds about right in terms of getting fully back to normal. Some tourism dependent countries will likely resist any attempt to make it too complicated to travel for this reason. Preconditions for implementing Phase 1 of the White House "Opening up America again" Guidelines include continued downward trending, lots of testing and tracing, and adjustments for local and regional circumstances. I'd have no issue flying to USA now, but I wouldn't spend a lot of time in their cities. If the crisis eases within the next month, most people will probably emerge OK, but if it drags on for 6-12 months or more (though I doubt it, but you never know) then all bets are off. Of course, they can just exempt themselves from being litigated against, but softened travel demand will inevitably occur if the requirements to travel are tightened. Some Pacific Island nations already require the MMR shot prior to entry, some of these countries need it 15 days before entering the country (such as Vanuatu). The rest of the world will follow very soon. In any case, we will be looking at countries returning to normal long before a covid19 vaccine comes out, or if it does. Regular you are probably right but it might be another year to get beyond the trans Tasman bubble. The common cold has been around long enough for us to develop immunity. Even Saudi Arabia opened up to general tourism only last year. Well too bad for you if you can't get insurance. Although a lot of developments have occurred in the 4 weeks since your comments were made, patrick is way off if he thinks airlines and cross border businesses can survive another year of shutdowns. I see borders re-opening in 1-2 months, and travel demand slowly coming back over the course of 3-6 months. Yes, there will probably be phases to re-opening, but they will be staged over a few weeks, to the point that after a month or two at the latest, all (or most) of these measures will be dropped. Signing up with Executive Traveller only takes a second and lets you I implore all the governments around the world - please think about those who are not in the many affected industries yet! Absolutely, Patrick. Further international will be driven by vaccine development, probably later next year and travel contingent on vaccination or anti-bodies. For me, as soon as I can travel again, I will be back in the air using Emirates exclusively as usual. Even if it isn't, it will become a recommended vaccine, with annual re-vaccination taking place like the flu. I agree COVID 19 will require annual vaccinations like flu and it will also need some reasonable anti-viral treatment if we do get it. Passenger numbers edged up slightly. 10 Summer Vacation Ideas In The U.S. For 2021, Top 10 Destinations Americans Will Be Headed This Summer. People do have short memories and the allure of international travel will not be dulled much by this virus. And I say that as someone who has relied on the ability to travel extensively by air for pretty much my whole 20 year working career. Looking at Singapore and Hong Kong, they are reliant on the tourist dollar as much as the local if not more. "Police love enforcement"? Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack told Today the government was hopeful 2022 could be the year that Australia opens its borders. Interstate should start very soon like next month, along with to NZ. I think if there is a vaccine by mid to end of 2021 it will be a condition of entry to many/most countries and then it will take off quite quickly. Regards. It's not guaranteed there will be a vaccine, some experts are saying it's unrealistic to expect one so quickly, as they normally take years to develop. Here's our Disclosure & Privacy Policy for more info. Although this group will include some business travellers, it's expected to be primarily personal and leisure-based trips. There's no model for this – no modern-times equivalent to draw upon – but according to global travel specialists Atmosphere Research Group, that recovery timeline will slowly stretch out for two full years after COVID-19 is declared as being "under control". Most travelers won't even notice this. Airlines are likely to rebuild their networks, especially on the international front, beginning with key routes but with a strategic focus on capacity which will favour smaller and more fuel-efficient aircraft such as the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 over the likes of the double-decker Airbus A380. People who fly First Class now probably do it regardless of the high cost, and that is likely to continue. With airlines around the world reeling from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, and the very real risk that some will be unable to survive the effects of the pandemic-led slowdown or shutdown, attention remains focussed on when the industry will recover and how long that recovery will take. Anyway, look up Event 201. Pakistan reportedly also requires all citizens, as well as any foreign traveler, who has spent more than 4 weeks in the country, to present proof of recent polio vaccination prior to being allowed to leave. Doubtful - the USA will re-open far more quickly than many other countries. 2 months time, the USA and most of Europe will be back to business as usual. Nope, let's hope USA and UK get on top of this soon. When will international travel be allowed? The lack of any sensible testing in the UK and much of the US sort of rules them out. Once travel restrictions have been lifted, normal travel will resume very quickly. Patrick, bureaucrats will make the decision to re-open countries. The idea that the USA will "re-open far more quickly than many other countries" is questionable. Secondly, if they keep these measures in place for years, it means permanently. User Name: Remember Me: Password Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Travel will open sooner rather than later; I'd say by Christmas it will all be ready to rumble! For those who have to travel for business many will be confined to the cheap seats for all but the longest of flights, as many companies will not have the discretionary dollars to pay for business class seats. Direct 'point to point' passenger air travel will be easier to mange any out breaks without disrupting air freight.I do see airlines who survive and are members of airline alliances do more co-sharing or having their own in depth alliances like Qantas/Emirates and Air NZ/United/Singapore Airlines.The type of people who will undertake medium to ultra long haul air travel will essential business travelers, 'essential' workers and those leisure travelers who have the disposable money to spend on 'luxury' leisure products.Domestic air travel within Australia and New Zealand will see initial growth, followed short haul international air travel like the Trans Tasman and South Pacific Islands but it will depend on how many people who will have the disposable income for air travel.Since COVID-19 is more of a disruptive virus and not seasonal unlike the other members of the Coronavirus family, it will be around for a while causing further disruption to global manufacturing, supply chains, travel and economies despite a vaccine/s being developed.
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